Experts, including Kelly, caution that Israel’s potential military action against Iran could accelerate nuclear proliferation, affecting both nuclear and non-nuclear states. This situation raises alarms among watchdog organizations like the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), which notes that a new arms race is forming with increased risks compared to past conflicts. SIPRI Director Dan Smith highlights that both the U.S. and Russia are modernizing their arsenals, while China is ramping up warhead production. Additionally, India and Pakistan are enhancing their military capabilities amid long-standing tensions that nearly erupted into conflict earlier this year.
Kelly specifically points out that Iran is likely to resume its nuclear program post-conflict, an assertion mirrored by former U.S. officials who warn that Israel’s strikes could push Tehran toward hasty nuclear weapon development. This situation could trigger a “cascade effect,” where increased nuclear capabilities in Iran would raise security concerns not only for Israel—believed to possess around 90 nuclear weapons—but also alarm neighboring Sunni-majority states like Saudi Arabia. The Nuclear Threat Initiative notes that while Saudi Arabia does not currently have nuclear weapons, officials have expressed intentions to acquire them if Iran achieves nuclear status.
North Korea is also likely to view Israel’s actions as validation for its own nuclear pursuits. Analyst Decker Eveleth mentions that Israel’s bombardment aligns with the threats Pyongyang has anticipated for years, reinforcing their rationale for developing nuclear weapons. Overall, the potential for a regional arms race amidst these developments is a serious concern for both regional stability and global security.
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